Market Update

October 2011

I have been eagerly awaiting this month's statistics to see what sort of bounce back, if any, we would see after the slower Summer season. The answer, somewhat surprisingly, is that the we didn't seen any bounce back in sales activity at all - in any of the neighbourhoods we look at. The degree of sales drop varies quite a bit, with more than 30% drops in sales activity in the Downtown, Vancouver Westside attached and detached, and North Vancouver attached markets compared to just 6.7% in the Vancouver East attached market and 16.6% in the Vancouver East detached market. Interestingly enough, this decreased sales activity has not really impacted sales prices as both the average and median prices in most markets held relatively stable. We have also not seen a dramatic spike in listing inventories. Should listing inventory start to rise in October, we may be looking at some minor slips on the pricing side. It is my belief, however, that the commitment to hold interest rates until 2013, in conjunction with positive employment and immigration numbers, should keep prices steady through to next year.

One market to keep an eye on is the Vancouver Westside detached market. It is the one market that showed a large increase in active listings (up 22%) as well as a large drop off in sales activity (down 33%) and median sale price (down 6.3%). As a market that has experienced tremendous gains in median pricing over the past year, it seems the table may finally see an adjustment. I would speculate that the rapid rise in listings is stemming from those 'testing' the market as they see their neighbours sell far above what market conditions would have allowed for last year. As prices slip, we may see many of these listings simply get pulled off the market. If not, look for further drops here.

Rob

Vancouver Special Blog

Rain Screening

Now that we've finished with the installation of the Tyvek (waterproofing) and strapping, we were ready to start with the siding. There are a number of different types of metal siding to go with, but which one would look best? In this case, we decided to go with a wider offset, just to make sure that the front didn't look too busy....

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Market Update

August 2011

As the dog days of summer, along with some long overdue sunshine, kick into full gear, let's take a look at the July numbers. As would be expected going into the Summer months, sales activity has dropped substantially with declines from 14% to a whopping 50%. Detached homes in Vancouver Westside and North Vancouver, as well as North Vancouver condos were the hardest hit here. We are also seeing active listings creep up slightly, but nothing more than a few percent in any area. Prices mostly slipped across the board, with two notable exceptions: Detached homes in Vancouver Westside fell 10%, which would appear to be a natural correction after a ridiculous run of rising prices, while the average price Downtown surprisingly climbed by 19%. This is mainly attributable to a few ultra high-end sales and, when digging deeper, the median price Downtown actually dipped last month.

Looking into August, don't expect much to change. The real question remains what happens in September. This is a month where we typically see an upswing in activity, but it will be curious to see how all this bad press regarding the international markets plays out. I suspect we will remain relatively stable through the end of the year, but I will re-evaluate that statement as things unfold.

Enjoy the rest of Summer!

Rob

Unique Homes Blog

This house was designed for comfortable everyday living with a focus on sustanability. While simple in form the exterior utilizes a variety of low maintainence materials. The interior is organized around a large open entertaining area, which includes the kitchen, dinning room, and living room...

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Market Update

June 2011

Well, I was hoping we would be Stanley Cup champions by the time I sat down to write this month's newsletter, but I will certainly settle for the fact that we are still in the running! In fact, I think the Canucks playoff run added some much needed positivity to the city considering the awful run of weather we had through April and May. Let's hope the beautiful sunshine we've had to start June sticks around for awhile.

Now, on to the real estate market.... As discussed last month, the trend of decreasing sales volume continued through May with declines from 5% to 40%. It does appear that the early start to this year's Spring market has resulted in an early start to the Summer slowdown as well, which we now appear to be fully entrenched in. That said, the decreasing sales volume appears to be the only trend that is consistent across all market, so this month let's take a look at the individual markets a little more closely.

The Vancouver West detached market finally showed some signs of slowing of its torrid run to start the year. Sales dropped 17.1% while prices fell 8.7%, with active inventory remaining flat. The absorption rate remains high and the market here is still strong, but I expect to see further declines in this market moving forward. In the Vancouver West attached market, sales volume dropped a more dramatic 36.7% with prices slipping 9% and inventory climbing 6.7%. The declining sales here is not entirely unpredictable given the seasonality of the market, though the degree of the decline is more than expected. I suspect we may see a mild rebound in June and July.

The detached Vancouver East market showed the most resiliency this past month with sales slipping a mere 4.8% and prices down just 1.8%. Inventory actually dropped here as well, down 4.3%. Given the current disparity in prices between East and West, I believe this market will remain strong throughout the year. The Vancouver East attached market shows more similarity to its West side counterpart, with sales down 31%. This market, however, also shows inventory dropping 7.7% and prices that have actually climbed 2.4%. I would venture to guess that we will see these prices follow the downward trend next month.

Downtown, we saw a price rebound of 4.7% this month, after a significant drop last month, in spite of sales being down over 34%. Listing inventory remained flat, with less than a 1% change, so look for this market to remain stable over the Summer.

Taking a look at North Vancouver now, we see trends similar to the East side. The detached market showed modest declines in sales (10.7%) and prices (3.6%), but also displaying a dip in inventory of 4.1%. The attached market here took the hardest hit volume wise, with a 41.6% drop in sales and 7.6% increase in listing activity, but also saw prices climb 8.7% to an average $526,753. As with the East side market, look for those prices to slip downwards over the summer as well.

Much of the activity in the market right now can be attributed to seasonal factors, as the trends do follow in line with what we would expect historically. The exact timing this year has been moved up 4-6 weeks, but the general movement and scale of things falls within the expected range. Overall, homes that are priced well are still selling quickly and Buyers are seeing a little more selection than the beginning of the year presented. Enjoy the start of the Summer and let me know if you have any questions!

Rob